2015 Kentucky Derby Horses and Betting

This year's Kentucky Derby includes the best crop of three year olds of the 21st Century. Only the Street Sense-Hard Spun-Curlin-Rags to Riches class of 2007 is even close. This is not the year to reach for a 50-1 shot in your Derby wagers. As a starting point, expect horses with morning line odds of 20-1 or less to run 1st and 2nd (in the exacta). The likely top four betting choices (American Pharoah, Dortmund, Carpe Diem and Materiality) are a jaw dropping 17-for-19 lifetime!! Some longer priced horses could run third or fourth for those of you playing the trifecta (top 3 finishers) and superfecta (top 4 finishers). Bob Baffert has the two deserved favorites. American Pharoah is undefeated since removing blinkers after his first start, and he's annihilated four fields (3x Grade 1, 1 x Grade 2) since running 5th in his debut. The big Derby x-factor is the 1 1/4 distance. The Pharoah is the son of 2009 Derby runner-up Pioneer of Nile. The dam side is less important for stamina purposes; it is a mild concern that his is a decidedly sprint focused pedigree 'on the bottom'. In a 20-horse field, I caution on taking too short a price. But, this horse is a logical win bet at 3-1 or better. Baffert's other horse is the majestic Dortmund. He's an undefeated 6-for-6 and the King of Santa Anita's prep season. He's like your friend who plays left tackle and forces his way up to the bar. Because he's such a big horse, it's possible he gets into trouble in the big field. But, he has fast cruising speed and late kick. Worthy of a win bet at 9-2 or better. Todd Pletcher has Carpe Diem and Materialiity, both stuck down near the rail. They'll have to send hard in a field loaded with front running horses & stalkers. These two will be reasonably short prices, and I'll limit their use to underneath in the exacta, tri and superfecta.

Kentucky Derby hopeful Mubtaahij works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday, April 28, 2015, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo)

I'm going to bet UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij with world class trainer Mike de Kock from South Africa. The 20-1 #6 horse is trying to break the horrid record for Dubai shippers, however, this well bred animal has 4 wins and a 2nd in 5 dirt starts. He comes in relatively fresh, and has worked three times since arriving in the states two weeks ago to help his acclimation. He's the only horse in the Derby field to run beyond 1 1/8 (in which he crushed a solid field by 8 lengths). And he's 20-1 morning line. I'll bet him to win and place at 10-1 or better. I'll use him heavily with the Baffert pair and Materiality; lightly with Carpe Diem and Firing Line (for Simon Callahan and Gary Stevens; 12-1). For trifecta/superfecta consideration, my long shot 'underneath' horses are: El Kabier (30-1), a tactical horse who'll likely be closing in the stretch for John Terranova and ridden by Churchill king Calvin Borel. Carla Gaines's Bolo (30-1) makes his 3rd start off the layoff and is working well for the Derby. He's bred to run long, though is lack of local works bothers me. Louisiana Derby winner International Star (20-1) is bred to run a marathon (by Derby champ Fusaichi Pegasus out of a French Deputy mare). He'll be closing late into what is likely going to be a hot pace. I'm not sure he can win, but I'll be stunned if he's out of the superfecta. He has an impressive ascending speed figure pattern that makes him dangerous. Lightly raced Danzig Moon(30-1) has an impressive stamina pedigree, a good closing style, and superb Churchill Works coming into the race. He has tactical speed, but I expect patient rider Julien Leparoux to sit back and make a late run down the Twin Spires stretch. Read about all the contenders: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses Good luck with all your selections! I very rarely make money in the Derby (20 horses, long distance, crazy atmosphere)...but with bourbon--we're all winners!!